Who would win between Meloni and Schlein?

Let’s imagine that Giorgia Meloni brings the general election forward to May 2027, combining it with the local elections, and that the centre-left presents a united front with Elly Schlein as its candidate for Palazzo Chigi. Who would win? Under the new electoral law, a difference of two or three percentage points could make a huge difference in Parliament. And the two sides are close enough that variables not yet measured by the polls could prove decisive.

The law allocates 70 seats in the Chamber of Deputies and 35 seats in the Senate to the coalition that comes first, provided it secures 42 per cent of the vote in both Houses. It does not guarantee an absolute majority.

According to Supermedia Youtrend on 5 November, the ‘broad coalition’ stands at 45 per cent, whilst the centre-right without Vannacci stands at 42.5 per cent. BiDiMedia, on 9 November, recorded 44.6 per cent against 42.9 per cent. The margins are within the margin of error: the race is still up for grabs.

However, when the prospective prime ministerial candidates appear on the ballot paper, the figures are reversed in the BiDiMedia scenario: 45.2 per cent for the centre-right, 43.8 per cent for the centre-left. The leaders influence the results: the centre-right gains ground compared to the combined total of its constituent parties, whilst the broad coalition does not.

This is the first unknown factor. Meloni can draw on her experience in government, but she must defend the budget. Schlein can turn the vote into a referendum on the government, but she must convince people that the PD, M5S, AVS and reformists can govern together, starting with Ukraine.

Second unknown: Conte. According to SWG, support for the coalition changes very little – 44.6 per cent with Schlein and 44.5 per cent with Conte – whilst the internal breakdown changes. It remains unclear who would be better at mobilising the undecided and the moderates.

Third unknown: the spoilers. Vannacci’s departure from the centre-right would take away crucial votes, but his entry would not be decisive: BiDiMedia has simulated a coalition expanded to include Futuro Nazionale and arrived at a tie at 45.2 per cent, 3.5 percentage points below the combined total of the parties. Adding an ally does not mean adding all their votes. A Di Battista list, polling around 3 per cent, would harm the broad coalition if it took voters away from it, but far less so if it mobilised those who would otherwise abstain.

Finally, election day: holding the local elections on the same day could affect turnout, but at present it is impossible to say who would benefit from this.

What remains? The centre-left has a slight lead in the polls on coalition support, but it is not enough. The centre-right leads in a head-to-head comparison between Meloni and Schlein, but risks a split on the right. The new law means that just a few percentage points could decide the governability bonus, and, with six months to go until a hypothetical election, those points are not firmly in anyone’s pocket. The winner will be whoever manages not to lose, during the campaign, the voters currently attributed to them by the polls.