The market is betting on a Ukrainian victory

Wars are chronicled through maps, military communiqués and territories conquered or lost. But there is another map, less visible and often more revealing: the one drawn by private capital. Money can make mistakes; it can take advantage of public guarantees; but when it buys companies, builds factories and ties up resources for decades, it offers an indication that is difficult to dismiss as mere propaganda. At the reconstruction conference held in Gdańsk, the shift in tone was evident. In previous years, the focus had been mainly on aid; this time, on investment and profits. Ukraine was no longer seen merely as a victim in need of support, but as a future European market. “Investing in the downturn,” summarised the American representative Jeremy Lewin: buying when prices are low to benefit from the recovery. A total of 160 agreements were announced, comprising both private investment and aid, worth approximately 11 billion dollars.

These investors are not necessarily betting on the recapture of Crimea or a return to the 1991 borders. Their idea of victory is more concrete: that Russia will fail to wipe Ukraine off the map, that Kyiv will remain sovereign, and that its path towards the European Union will become irreversible. As the New York Times observed, every investment is a bet on the future existence of the Ukrainian state. There are numerous signs of this. Xavier Niel, founder of Iliad, led the acquisition of Lifecell, Ukraine’s third-largest mobile operator. Eric and Wendy Schmidt have invested in commercial property funds in Kyiv and in Ukrainian drone manufacturers. This is not charity, but a prediction that Ukraine will continue to have cities, consumers and a functioning economy. Even more telling are the factories. Nestlé has opened a new plant in the Volyn region, whilst Bayer has expanded its seed production in Zhytomyr, also building air-raid shelters. Multinationals are not waiting for the post-war period: they are already integrating Ukraine into European production chains. McDonald’s and Jysk, too, are continuing to open new outlets, assuming a stable population, wages and consumer spending. Another sign comes from the insurance sector. Insuring a ship in the Black Sea, a warehouse or an industrial plant means transforming the risk of war into a calculable risk. State guarantees remain crucial, but private insurers are once again committing capital and putting their reputations on the line. The same applies to the tender for the 40-year management of certain terminals at the port of Chornomorsk and to Ryanair and Wizz Air’s plans to reopen dozens of routes following a ceasefire. These are decisions that look well beyond the end of the conflict. Caution is needed. Foreign investment remains limited and many operations still depend on multilateral banks and state guarantees. The big leap has not yet come. The trend, however, is clear. Western capitalism is not banking on Kyiv’s total military victory, but on something perhaps more important: that Putin will not succeed in eliminating the Ukrainian state. When money builds factories, buys telephone networks, insures ships and plans long-term investments, it sends a clear message: the Ukraine of the future will exist. And it will be much closer to Brussels than to Moscow.