Schlein must cry foul over the electoral law, but she might end up thanking Meloni

There are laws that the opposition fights against because it considers them wrong, and laws it fights against because they risk making things too convenient for it. For Elly Schlein, the new electoral law falls primarily into the second category. Of course, she could never say that. She must call it the ‘Melonellum’, denounce its arrogance and argue that the majority bonus upsets the institutional balance. But if she could speak without sticking to the opposition’s script, she would probably say: dear Giorgia, thank you. Thank you because the law transforms the “broad coalition” from a rhetorical exercise into a mandatory coalition. Until now, the centre-left has been able to declare itself ready to govern without establishing who should lead it, with what programme and through which alliances. The PD could engage in dialogue with Conte, court Renzi, and avoid a rift with Fratoianni and Calenda, whilst postponing any decision. The new law makes this game more difficult. To secure the bonus, parties must stand together, reach 42 per cent and nominate a candidate for Prime Minister. For Schlein, this is a godsend. The ‘broad coalition’ will have to become a concrete political proposal. Conte will no longer be able to claim to be both an ally and an alternative to the PD. Renzi will have to clarify whether he genuinely intends to be part of the coalition. Bonelli and Fratoianni will have to choose whether vetoes or the chance to govern are more important. And the PD, being the largest party, will inevitably strengthen its negotiating position. Then there are the primaries. They are not required by law, but they become the most natural solution if a coalition has to choose a prime ministerial candidate without shared leadership. Schlein rose to the leadership of the PD precisely thanks to open primaries. A contest with Conte could give her what she still lacks: popular legitimacy as leader of the entire opposition.

The reform also offers her another advantage. It would not be Schlein who imposes coalition discipline: it would be the electoral system that makes it inevitable. The ‘anti-splinter’ amendment, which excludes votes for lists falling below the threshold from the count, also reduces the power of small parties that have so far been able to wield influence far beyond their actual support. Naturally, Schlein must oppose it. She has good reasons to criticise closed lists, the absence of preferential voting and a reform approved without agreement with the opposition. But behind the protest lies a thought that is difficult to admit. The law forces the centre-left to do what it ought to be doing anyway: form a coalition, choose a leader, present a programme and genuinely try to win. Meloni believes she has crafted the law to ensure she remains at Palazzo Chigi. She may, unwittingly, have crafted the very law that could see Schlein become a candidate for prime minister.