Trump restores the Burmese junta’s reputation and opens the door to dialogue

There was a moment, following the coup in Myanmar on 1 February 2021, when the military junta had never been so isolated: sanctioned by the United States and the EU, and excluded from key regional forums such as the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). Even the regime’s two main supporters, Russia and China, seemed distracted: the former embroiled in the war in Ukraine, the latter busy forging deals of convenience with the armed groups fighting against the junta.

In recent months, however, something has changed. Not for the Burmese people, who have continued to be bombarded by the military for over five years, but in the international community’s attitude towards a government deemed illegitimate. Since Min Aung Hlaing changed his title, moving from head of the Tatmadaw to ‘president’, Naypyitaw has suddenly rebranded itself as ‘civilian’ and has once again become a point of contact for countries in the region and beyond, with state visits to India, China, Laos, Cambodia, Thailand, Vietnam, Russia and Malaysia. Yesterday, an exclusive report by Reuters revealed the most feared change of all: that within the US administration, which has initiated direct talks with the Burmese government.

On 15 and 16 September, the US Under-Secretary of State for Intelligence and Research, Michael Vance, travelled to Naypyitaw to negotiate directly with Min Aung Hlaing regarding the release of the American Adam Castillo – who was subsequently freed and repatriated to the United States – and to pave the way for further negotiations. The new president remains subject to U.S. sanctions for human rights violations, including the massacre and expulsion of hundreds of thousands of Rohingya Muslims between 2016 and 2017, but what matters is that the legitimisation campaign is working. On Wednesday, he was welcomed on a state visit to Malaysia amid honours and welcoming ceremonies, and yesterday Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim stated that he would do “everything possible” to ensure that “Myanmar is welcomed as part of our community of nations, without prejudice, and particularly within the context of ASEAN”.