The G7 gives Trump a free pass ahead of the mid-term elections

The G7 countries decided yesterday, at an extraordinary summit, to make available around 100 million barrels of crude oil and diesel from their strategic reserves over the next four months, with a ‘substantial’ release of diesel already due within the next twenty days. Donald Trump portrayed this as a concession by Europe and a victory for himself. The White House had been urging Europe for days to release reserves to ease pressure on the market, going so far as to threaten to ban the export of American diesel, which accounts for around half of the diesel imported by the EU. Energy Secretary Chris Wright had requested 120 million barrels over six months. Moreover, on 3 November, American citizens will be called to the polls for the mid-term elections and, according to a study published in American Politics Research in 2025, fuel prices are among the strongest predictors of presidential approval ratings in the United States: compared with before the war with Iran, the price per gallon of petrol and diesel has risen by 50 per cent and 70 per cent respectively.

On Thursday, five European countries, including Italy, held an emergency meeting with the Commission. They wanted the decision on stockpiles to be taken by the International Energy Agency, so as to defuse tensions with Washington. Instead, there was an emergency G7 meeting, followed by the publication of the decision on stockpiles. According to Javier Blas, an oil markets expert at Bloomberg, “Brussels and Berlin thought they knew better, but the White House skilfully took advantage of the situation”, that is, by taking a hard line. In the United States yesterday, wholesale diesel prices fell by almost 5 per cent. This seems to put an end, at least for now, to the American threat of an export ban. However, the release comes at a time when the market is short of diesel: Russia has extended its export ban until 31 October, and China, with dwindling stocks, has begun to cut back on exports. After all, reserves are meant for crises. Using them at the request of others means having even less of a buffer against today’s shocks.