Netanyahu’s shift from the centre to the extremes

At the start of last week, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had launched an election campaign aimed at the centre, his traditional voter base, and some newspapers even ventured a prediction that seemed like science fiction, but which – in Israeli politics, where surprises are never in short supply – might well turn out to be true: an alliance between the current Prime Minister and General Gadi Eisenkot, leader of the Yashar party. Following the 2022 elections, the entire opposition refused to form a coalition with Netanyahu, so the Likud leader began courting far-right extremists who have shaped the reputation of the outgoing government; and, according to some experts on Israeli politics, that was a mistake not only on the part of the current Prime Minister, but also on the part of the opposition, which knew full well what Israeli politics would look like in the years to come with figures such as Itamar Ben Gvir at the Ministry of National Security and Bezalel Smotrich at the Ministry of Finance.

Then, at the end of last week, in a move that was by no means unusual, Netanyahu shifted from the centre to the far right. This shift came after General Ofer Winter founded the People of Israel (Amcha Israel) party with the slogan ‘Winter is coming’, taken from his surname, which means ‘winter’ in English. Winter’s emergence has thrown the far right into disarray, and suddenly Smotrich’s Religious Zionist Party has fallen below the electoral threshold in the polls. Netanyahu then appealed to Smotrich and Ben Gvir: join forces, otherwise we will not be able to form our coalition again. Winter is running an election campaign against the government and is not promising any alliances, so Bibi has reached out once more in an attempt to keep the door open for the current coalition. He wants to hold together what, since 7 October, has become increasingly difficult to keep together. Israel is splintering into many factions; Bibi has always been the all-weather Prime Minister, but the country is slipping through his fingers.