The Cuban precipice

On 13 August, the Cuban regime celebrated the centenary of Fidel Castro’s birth, but the crisis facing the system built by the Líder Máximo is being highlighted in recent days by new record levels of inflation and protests. Inflation has reached 20.7 per cent year-on-year and 2.56 per cent month-on-month, with the sharpest rises in the restaurant and hotel sectors (32.57 per cent), food and non-alcoholic drinks (26.3 per cent) and transport (24.9 per cent). There have also been significant increases in education (23.3 per cent) and housing services (20.8 per cent), whilst rises remain more modest for home furnishings, miscellaneous goods and services, and clothing and footwear. The healthcare sector recorded the smallest increase, at just 0.51 per cent, followed by communications at 0.68 per cent. Between 2021 and 2025, prices in the formal market have quadrupled, and experts warn that official figures do not capture the true extent of the deterioration in the informal markets. Among the causes are monetary reform and fuel shortages: Cuba is said to need around 100,000 barrels of oil per day to meet its energy needs, but produces only 40,000 from domestic fields.

This results in a heavy reliance on imports, which are currently hampered by the embargo imposed by Trump – yet, according to observers, even without the embargo, problems linked to Venezuela and Russia, the country’s main suppliers, would remain. On Wednesday, the authorities warned that scheduled power cuts could affect up to 67 per cent of the country simultaneously during peak hours. In response, between January and June, over 766 protests were recorded in 141 municipalities across the country, peaking in February and June: in the last month alone, 253 were counted, with up to 31 taking place in a single day. The regime’s response resulted in 1,894 human rights violations between 1 January and 30 June 2026, a 48 per cent increase compared with the previous six-month period, including 410 arbitrary arrests.