The MPS Odyssey as told by Lovaglio

Whilst Carlo Messina quoted Draghi’s “Whatever it takes” to say that Intesa Sanpaolo will do whatever is necessary to see the bid for Montepaschi through, the CEO of the Siena-based bank drew on the Odyssey to hint at new options currently under consideration. “Some routes close and others open,” said Lovaglio during the presentation of the results for the first half of 2026, which ended with a profit of 1.1 billion. “From our safe harbour, we will continue our journey, fully convinced that we will explore every strategic option.” Following Banco BPM’s decision to halt the merger project with MPS, the market has come to believe that the only viable proposal is that of Intesa, which also involves BPER-Unipol, with the sale of half the branches, and which does not rule out the possibility of a partnership with Unicredit, as recently hinted at by Messina himself.

The revolving door of the banking game has reached its final sprint, with two major banks, Intesa Sanpaolo and Unicredit, aiming to dominate the scene and secure a place within the Generali Group. What are these new avenues that are reportedly opening up to block Intesa’s path? The epic reference currently seems more like a ploy to push Messina to raise the price, but nothing can be ruled out because Lovaglio intends to press his case to the full, based on preserving the integrity of MPS – which would otherwise be broken up – and competition in the credit sector (“The crown may grow larger, but the kingdom becomes smaller,” he said). For the time being, however, the banker can do little more than hint to shareholders at the possibility of a special dividend in the autumn, to counterbalance the cash component of Intesa’s offer, and the possibility of some manoeuvring regarding the stake in Generali, “which is also considered important by other market players”. These are things that have already been said, but who knows. Lovaglio bid farewell to the analysts by saying: “I’m wondering whether to tell you that we’ll meet in November (as per the bank’s calendar), but perhaps we’ll meet even sooner.” Is it just a bluff?