Oil exports are performing better than expected

The International Energy Agency (IEA) reports that “the oil market is showing tentative signs of rebalancing, with global supply exceeding demand for the first time since the outbreak of the war in Iran”. The reason: exports from the Middle East are recovering more quickly than global demand, despite the fact that Iranian attacks on maritime transport continue. The IEA has also specified the volumes still to be released onto the market, as part of the record release of emergency oil reserves announced by member countries in March. By the end of February 2027, a further 71 million barrels will thus be made available, of which 15 million will be diesel. Having previously forecast a supply deficit for the fourth quarter of 2026, the agency now estimates that, during the same period, oil supply will average 105 million barrels per day (bpd), exceeding projected demand by 1.7 million bpd. Following the publication of the report, prices reversed their previous upward trend, with Brent falling by 0.1 per cent to settle at $95.71 per barrel. Gulf oil producers are in fact resuming exports – which had been suspended since the start of the conflict in late February – by resorting to measures such as so-called ‘stealth passages’ through the Strait of Hormuz, with oil tankers switching off their tracking signals to avoid being attacked. Meanwhile, OPEC+ has announced that crude oil production reached 41.23 million bpd in October, an increase of around 2.04 million compared with September and a volume equivalent to 97 per cent of that recorded before the conflict. Other analysts even speculate that there could be a return to an oversupply. This year, high oil prices have dampened demand, helping to shift the balance towards a surplus. Global oil demand is therefore expected to fall by 2.7 million bpd in 2026, settling at 102.3 million.