State-owned companies dominate Italian capitalism. Political capitalism?

Can the definition of ‘political capitalism’ – used to describe the United States and China in the title of a successful book by Alessandro Aresu – be applied to Italy? Looking through the data in Mediobanca’s annual report (2025 figures) on the leading Italian companies, one might, mutatis mutandis, be tempted to say yes. Indeed, the dominance of large state-owned enterprises is becoming firmly established at the pinnacle of Italian capitalism: Eni, Enel and GSE occupy the top three spots, and to find the first private company (Prysmian) we have to go down to fourth place. To gauge the scale of turnover, the combined revenue of the top three private groups amounts to just 70 per cent of Eni’s revenue alone. State-owned and energy companies are therefore the queens of our capitalist system.

As for the state-owned defence companies (Leonardo and Fincantieri), we’ll have to wait a little longer, but they are the ones set to climb the rankings. Naturally, a structure so heavily reliant on public companies evokes the complex relationship with politics. Eni and Enel are ‘powerhouses’ in their own right, and the relationship they have, for example, with the Meloni government is one of mutual exchange, certainly not one of pure subservience. Politics, however, retains a privilege of no small significance: the appointment of CEOs. And it is no coincidence that a shrewd politician like Matteo Renzi, when listing the key deadlines for the next parliamentary term, highlighted the post-Mattarella era and the appointments within state-owned companies.

Returning to the Mediobanca ranking, Leonardo is fifth, Ferrovie dello Stato is seventh, Saipem ninth and A2A tenth. There are five utilities in the top 10 and eight in the top 20. Combined, Eni, Enel and GSE generate 220 billion in revenue, but in the profitability rankings, Enel overtakes Eni with 4.2 billion compared to 2.6. This year’s surprise is Prysmian, which is not only the top private company but also tops the ranking of manufacturing firms alone, overtaking Leonardo and Stellantis. Prysmian manufactures submarine cables for energy and telecommunications; it is a public company in which institutional investors hold around 50 per cent of the capital, and it generates just under 20 billion in revenue. Making their debut in the top list of manufacturing companies are Italpreziosi, based in Arezzo, and Barilla; Finarvedi features in the news due to the Ilva situation; whilst Fincantieri, Parmalat, Marcegaglia and Ferrari maintain their positions, and Stellantis drops down the rankings from first to third place. Looking at the leading group of manufacturing companies, there is certainly no sign of deindustrialisation, as their combined turnover has grown by 2.8 per cent over the past year.

Having discussed the underlying trends in Italian capitalism and the balance of power, it is also worth examining the Istat figures for industrial production in September. The result (+1.2 per cent month-on-month) exceeded analysts’ expectations, which ranged between 0.7 and 1 per cent, but reflects significant volatility without a clear trend. In fact, in August, production had fallen by precisely 1.2 per cent. Surveys conducted in recent weeks have yielded contradictory results, making it difficult to infer from yesterday’s figure that there will be a sustained recovery in industrial activity in the coming months. One need only consider the statement from Federacciai, which warns that plants may soon have to close due to the inability to cope with energy costs. However, production in September was driven mainly by capital goods and intermediate goods, whilst consumer goods saw a slight decline. The pharmaceutical sector saw a double-digit fall, whilst transport equipment rose.

However, the positive results in September do little to alter analysts’ views, who point out that the energy-intensive chemicals and steel sectors are being affected by supply costs, traditional sectors are suffering from Chinese competition, and the only real upturn is in the electronics sector, thanks to investment in artificial intelligence. It will therefore not be industry that drives growth (despite Defence and AI) but, once again, the services sector. Intesa Sanpaolo, for example, forecasts GDP to be “little more than stagnant in the two quarters straddling the turn of the year” before a recovery well into 2027, aided by the hoped-for easing of the energy crisis. Consequently, it estimates GDP growth for 2026 at +0.8 per cent, whilst Istat forecasts +0.9 per cent and the government’s forecast remains at +1 per cent, as announced in Cernobbio by Minister Giancarlo Giorgetti.