Gas: EU storage levels at their lowest since 2013

As at 31 October, the European Union’s gas storage facilities were 75 per cent full of their total capacity, which stands at approximately 100 billion cubic metres. According to the ‘Global Gas Security Review’ published today by the International Energy Agency (IEA), this is the lowest level recorded at this time of year since 2013. The IEA’s warning also extends to the coming year, as the agency believes that market tensions are likely to persist into 2027. Assuming that disruptions in the Middle East continue at least until the end of 2026, the IEA forecasts a 3 per cent decline in global LNG supply this year compared with 2025: this amounts to a shortfall of around 20 billion cubic metres, “the largest annual decline” ever recorded by the IEA, which also estimates a cumulative loss of around 150 billion cubic metres of LNG for the five-year period 2026–2030. This is of paramount importance for Italy, where gas-fired power stations frequently determine the wholesale price of electricity and where, according to a report by Oxford Economics, it accounts for around 3 per cent of Italian households’ expenditure in the consumer price index – double the Eurozone average.

The war in the Middle East has, in fact, disrupted shipments through the Strait of Hormuz and damaged production facilities. Between March and October, shipments from Qatar and the UAE, destined for Europe but primarily for Asia, fell by over 60 billion cubic metres compared with the same months in 2025, whilst between April and September only around ten fully-loaded LNG tankers passed through Hormuz each month, compared with an average of around 95 for the whole of last year.

In Europe, under the IEA’s favourable scenario – based on the highly optimistic assumption that oil flows from the Strait of Hormuz will begin to return to pre-war levels from January 2027, and that the coming winter will be mild – reserves would stand at 33 per cent by the end of March 2027. With a cold winter and supply disruptions from the Gulf lasting at least until spring, however, the EU would reach spring with stocks at 7 per cent, an all-time low. This is clearly the worst-case scenario, but the risk is real, and negotiations to end the conflict in the Middle East are subject to the instability and unpredictability of the Trump administration.

Meanwhile, however, new supply has become available from facilities elsewhere in the world (from Plaquemines and Corpus Christi in the United States to smaller-scale production in the Congo, Senegal and so on). LNG production outside the Gulf has increased by over 40 billion cubic metres compared with the period March–October 2025, offsetting around two-thirds of the shortfall from the Middle East. The flexibility of the new agreements has also helped to cushion the blow. In the LNG contracts surveyed by the IEA, the proportion of volumes without a fixed destination – to be shipped wherever they are needed – rose from 29 per cent in 2016 to over 50 per cent in 2025, largely thanks to US supply, and Asian countries have benefited most from this, having doubled their imports from the Atlantic basin between March and October compared with the same months in 2025.

The pressure on the markets has also fuelled tensions between the Italian and German governments. On 29 October, Alessandro Noce, a director-general at the Ministry of the Environment, claimed that Italy had spent 300 million euros on gas storage and accused Germany: “We are paying more for gas because the Germans are buying it now.” As of 27 August, Italy had already filled 82 per cent of its gas storage facilities, compared with 51.6 per cent in Germany, which as of 2 November had filled only 61 per cent of its storage capacity. The German government, however, rejected Noce’s accusation, arguing that future imports, together with existing stocks, are sufficient to guarantee supplies throughout the winter. According to EU regulations – which stipulate that Member States must fill at least 90 per cent of their storage facilities between 1 October and 1 December, reducible to 80 per cent under difficult conditions – Germany has not, in fact, yet committed an infringement. Furthermore, flexibility is precisely intended to avoid compulsory purchases concentrated over a short period. Gas available during the summer was expensive due to supply disruptions, whilst prices for winter delivery reflected expectations of an improvement. Buying gas at that time, paying to store it and selling it in winter therefore offered German operators too little profit margin, or even a loss.