Wars and geopolitical shocks have cost 296.3 billion over five years

Five years of wars and geopolitical upheavals have cost the Italian economy €296.3 billion, due to lower exports to key markets – Belarus, Russia, Ukraine, Germany and the Middle East – higher energy import costs and increased financial burdens on businesses.

This is what emerges from the report by Confartigianato’s Research Department, presented on 28 October at the Confederation’s General Assembly, which quantifies the economic effects, over the five-year period 2022–2026, of the war in Ukraine, tensions in the Middle East, energy crises, monetary tightening and the United States’ shift towards protectionism.

The Confartigianato survey paints a picture of an Italian economy exposed to shocks that have overlapped and been transmitted through different channels. The final tally remains one of an exceptional cost for businesses: nearly 300 billion euros over five years. This loss is affecting the production system through rising energy prices, higher borrowing costs and lower exports, with significant consequences for business competitiveness and the resilience of national supply chains.

The overall estimate equates to an average loss of 59.3 billion euros per year.

The heaviest burden is represented by the increased cost of energy imports, which over the five-year period amounts to 130.7 billion euros – 44.1 per cent of the total impact – with an annual average of 26.1 billion. This is followed by the increased financial burden on businesses, amounting to 77.5 billion, 26.2 per cent of the total and 15.5 billion per year.

The decline in exports totals 88 billion euros, accounting for 29.7 per cent of the overall figure. The largest component relates to Germany, with a 52.4 billion drop in sales, equivalent to 17.7 per cent of the total impact. Losses in exports to Russia, Ukraine and Belarus are estimated at 30.2 billion, or 10.2 per cent, while those to the Middle East amount to 5.4 billion, or 1.8 per cent.

The time series highlights the peak in 2022, when the impact of the shocks reached €97.6 billion, equivalent to 4.9 per cent of GDP, mainly due to the surge in energy prices. In 2023, the figure fell to 61 billion, before dropping to 50.7 billion in 2024 and 36.2 billion in 2025. Confartigianato estimates a further rise to 50.8 billion in 2026.

At a regional level, the greatest negative impact is seen in Lombardy, which tops the ranking in absolute terms with €68.5 billion, accounting for 23.1 per cent of the total. This is followed by Emilia-Romagna with 31.6 billion, 10.7 per cent; Veneto with 31.4 billion, 10.6 per cent; and Tuscany with 31.1 billion, 10.5 per cent. Lazio ranks fifth, with 27.4 billion, accounting for 9.2 per cent, ahead of Piedmont, with 25.6 billion, 8.6 per cent. Furthermore, Campania, with 12.9 billion, 4.4 per cent; Sicily, with 10.5 billion, 3.5 per cent; the Marche, with 10.4 billion, 3.5 per cent; and Trentino-Alto Adige, with 10 billion, 3.4 per cent.

At provincial level, Milan bore the highest costs, at 24.9 billion euros, accounting for 8.4 per cent of the national total. In second place was Rome, with 20.2 billion, 6.8 per cent, followed by Turin with 11.1 billion, 3.8 per cent; Florence with 10.5 billion, 3.6 per cent; Brescia with 9.6 billion, 3.3 per cent; and Monza and Brianza with 9.3 billion, 3.1 per cent. Rounding off the top ten are Arezzo, with 8.1 billion, 2.7 per cent; Vicenza, with 7.5 billion, 2.5 per cent; Bologna, with 7.1 billion, 2.4 per cent; and Naples, with 6.5 billion, 2.2 per cent of the national total.