Caution over economic forecasts divides Giorgetti and Meloni

The tone is not that of someone on the campaign trail, but of someone who feels buffeted by international turmoil. And so, during the hearing on the Dpfp, in response to criticism of sluggish growth, the Minister for the Economy, Giancarlo Giorgetti, stated that opponents “do not take due account of the difficulties of planning in a constantly changing scenario, which, unfortunately, is changing for the worse”. Instead, he asserts, the government’s work during this parliamentary term, through the consolidation of public finances, has served to strengthen “credibility, which enables us to weather the storm on a more solid footing”.

The storm refers to the energy crisis, inflation and rising interest rates. Giorgetti outlines the budgetary framework of the Budget Bill, but without going into the details of the decisions, as the negotiations with Brussels are still ongoing on two fronts: on the one hand, the request for flexibility regarding inflation, which is squeezing margins on net expenditure; on the other, the negotiations on the use of the flexibility requested for energy and defence. The government’s aim, says the minister, is to be able to use part of these resources to ease the burden of utility bills rather than for investment, but the outcome of the negotiations with the Commission is far from certain. Two lines of criticism of the government are emerging from the opposition. One reasonable line of criticism, from Maria Cecilia Guerra of the PD, challenges the minister over the lack of any information regarding the use of the resources (energy and defence) for which the government is seeking a deviation from Parliament. The other, rather unreasonable – particularly at this stage of rising interest rates – comes from Stefano Patuanelli of the M5S, who blames the government for having brought the budget back into a ‘primary surplus’.

One curious aspect concerns the different communication styles of Giorgetti and Meloni. The minister commented on the 1 per cent growth forecast for 2026 – higher than the 0.6 per cent forecast – saying that the Ministry of Economy and Finance (MEF) has “never inflated the figures; we have always had to revise our forecasts upwards”. Earlier in the day, speaking at Assolombarda, the Prime Minister, referring to the upward revisions to GDP, had said: “We Italians are often underestimated. It’s just that, when the EU underestimates us, we’ve got used to it. When, on the other hand, we are systematically underestimated by our own institutions, it’s a bit of a shame, but that’s just how it is.” Meloni was referring to Istat, but later that evening Giorgetti claimed this ‘prudent’ approach was a credit to the government.