Confartigianato faces a risk of losing 124 billion in trade with Asia

Tensions on Red Sea shipping routes and the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz are increasing costs and risks for Italian trade. According to an analysis by Confartigianato’s Research Department, the value of Italian trade with Asia and Oceania carried out by sea amounts to 123.9 billion euros: 80.4 billion in imports and 43.5 billion in exports. This volume accounts for 39.4 per cent of Italy’s trade by sea and 9.8 per cent of Italy’s total trade with the rest of the world. In relation to the size of the national economy, the value of maritime trade with Asia and Oceania is equivalent to 5.6 per cent of Italy’s GDP: 3.7 per cent is attributable to imports and 2 per cent to exports. The Confartigianato Research Department emphasises that this is the sector potentially affected by the difficulties on the Red Sea routes.

For Italian companies most deeply integrated into global value chains, the rise in logistics costs can therefore affect both the price of imports and the competitiveness of goods destined for foreign markets. China is by far the main market in the region under consideration. Total maritime trade stands at 42.6 billion euros, accounting for 34.4 per cent of the total with Asia and Oceania. These are followed by India, with €9.7 billion, Saudi Arabia with €9.3 billion, Japan with €6.3 billion and South Korea with €6 billion. Trade with Indonesia, Vietnam, the United Arab Emirates and Australia is also significant. In terms of exports by sea, China accounts for €6.7 billion, ahead of Saudi Arabia (€4.2 billion), Japan (€3.9 billion), the United Arab Emirates (€3.8 billion), Australia (€3.7 billion) and India (€3.3 billion).

The potential impact of the crisis is not uniform across Italy’s regions. In absolute terms, Lombardy accounts for the highest value of maritime exports to Asia and Oceania, at 12.3 billion euros, followed by Emilia-Romagna (8.7 billion), Veneto (4.9 billion), Tuscany (3.7 billion) and Piedmont (3.4 billion). Taking imports and exports together, Lombardy records maritime trade with Asia and Oceania totalling 37.2 billion euros, accounting for 30.1 per cent of the national total. Next come Emilia-Romagna, with 16.1 billion, and Veneto, with 14.6 billion. Piedmont stands at 8.6 billion. In Central Italy, Tuscany stands out with 7 billion euros, whilst in Southern Italy the highest figures are recorded in Sicily, with 6.4 billion, and Campania, with 5.9 billion.

The first four regions – Lombardy, Emilia-Romagna, Veneto and Piedmont – account for a combined total of €76.5 billion in imports and exports by sea with Asia and Oceania, representing 61.8 per cent of the national total.