Meloni flies to Norway in search of oil and gas. Oslo’s energy significance for the EU

Tomorrow, Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni will be visiting the Kingdom of Norway: this is the first visit by an Italian prime minister to the country in almost 15 years. The objective justifies the trip: to consolidate bilateral cooperation on technological innovation, defence and energy with Oslo, one of the world’s leading players in the energy sector. This is a key issue for Palazzo Chigi, where discussions are under way regarding yet another temporary cut in excise duty on diesel, and on which Meloni has been campaigning in recent weeks, urging the European Union to implement targeted and immediate measures on energy prices.

Norway remains a minor player in the global energy market. Although it will be among the top 10 oil producers by 2025, its crude oil production accounts for around 2 per cent of global demand, whilst its natural gas production accounts for 3 per cent. Yet, as an exporter, it is a significant partner, particularly for the EU. In 2025, it exported around 122 billion cubic metres of gas, almost all of it to Europe, confirming its position as the EU’s main supplier of natural gas (both liquefied natural gas and gas transported via pipeline), with a 31 per cent share (up from 24 per cent in 2021). Norway accounted for the majority of gas imports via pipeline into the EU in 2025, with 86 billion cubic metres (equivalent to 54 per cent, and therefore more than half).

As far as Italy is concerned, Norway supplied our country with around 6.5 per cent of its imported natural gas in 2023 (ARERA data). This represents a sharp increase compared with the 2.7 per cent recorded in 2021, a sign of a substantial surge due to the consequences of the Russian attack on Ukraine. On the oil front, figures from the Union for Energy and Mobility (Unem) for last year show that Norway’s share of crude oil imported by Italy stands at 1.7 per cent. Overall, oil and gas account for more than half of the total value of Norwegian goods exports, making the country the world’s fourth-largest exporter of natural gas, after Russia, Qatar and the United States. 

Most of the Norwegian natural gas sold on the European market is transported to receiving terminals in Germany, the United Kingdom, Belgium, France and Denmark (with a connection to Poland via the Baltic Pipe) via the Norwegian gas pipeline network. Norwegian gas accounts for a considerable share of total gas consumption in these recipient countries, although a significant proportion of the gas is transported onward to other European countries. To date, only around half of Norway’s estimated gas reserves have been extracted, and production levels are expected to remain high and stable in the coming years. Towards 2030 and beyond, a gradual decline in production levels is forecast, according to the Norwegian Ministry of Energy. 

The pipelines are used to transport oil from the Norwegian continental shelf to four onshore terminals: Teesside in the UK, and Sture, Mongstad and Kårstø in Norway. The latter is the largest gas processing plant of its kind in Europe: around a quarter of Norway’s gas production passes through its facilities, and much of this is transported to Europe via direct gas pipelines to Belgium, France and Germany.

In August, the Norwegian Minister for Energy, Terje Asland, stated that the country (which is not a member of the EU) intends to maintain current levels of oil and gas production and exports until at least 2035. The Barents Sea, in the far north of Norway, is set to play a crucial role, given that energy production could decline significantly after 2030 without the discovery and development of new fields. The European Union remains adamant about its ban on new drilling in the Arctic, due to environmental risks. However, it cannot be ruled out that energy concerns – first due to the war in Ukraine and then to tensions in the Middle East – might persuade officials in Brussels to review their priorities.