Privatising Rai would backfire, says Mediobanca

The rise of streaming and Rai’s defence. The report by Mediobanca’s Research Department on the Media and Entertainment sector, published yesterday, offers an overview of the business landscape and a tidbit. The main trend in the global market is the success of streaming services: revenue from video-on-demand subscriptions accounts for 22 per cent of total turnover in 2025 and shows the most significant increase among the main business lines. This leaves advertising, traditional pay-TV and content production/distribution trailing behind, all of which have contracted by between four and two percentage points. The user base of streaming platforms grew by a further 6 per cent in 2025, following even stronger performance in previous years. Netflix holds the global lead with over 300 million subscribers, accounting for 27.7 per cent of the market. It is followed by Amazon Prime Video with 200 million users and Walt Disney just behind.

The entertainment industry is undergoing a phase of consolidation. Following Skydance’s acquisition of Paramount, the completion of the Canal+/MultiChoice deal and MFE’s increased stake in ProSiebenSat.1, 2026 is characterised by further major transactions driven by Paramount Skydance and Fox, targeting Warner Bros, Discovery and Roku respectively. These transactions, as noted by Mediobanca researchers, demonstrate the pursuit of economies of scale, the need to strengthen positions in streaming, and the increasingly central role of digital platforms. In the meantime, however, the average EBIT margin of the leading international operators has risen to 14.3 per cent (+0.7 per cent on the previous year), and Netflix remains the undisputed leader.

And in Italy? The market remains highly concentrated: Rai, Sky and Mediaset together account for 63 per cent of total revenue, although they are facing competition from streaming platforms (in 2022 this figure stood at 68 per cent). The average EBIT margin has returned to positive territory following the declines of previous years. Of particular note in the report is the analysis of Rai. Among European public service broadcasters, Italy maintains a modest scale (2.8 billion) “but is characterised by a level of user contributions below the European average” and “a more balanced revenue structure between advertising and public funding”. In terms of profitability, Rai continues to stand out amongst the major European countries and, with an annual licence fee of 90 euros, ‘has the lowest per-capita levy amongst the major European countries’. So much so that analysts at Mediobanca recommend ‘addressing the issue of adjusting the criteria underpinning the funding of the public service’. In this context, the report continues, “the question is not whether or not to fund the public service, but how to guarantee it adequate, stable and predictable resources so that it can continue to pursue its objectives in the general interest, ensuring independent and pluralistic news coverage, promoting culture and strengthening social cohesion”. In a context characterised by the increasing globalisation of markets and the rise of digital platforms, Rai’s distinctive role is considered decisive.

Anyone who might reasonably have expected Mediobanca – given its traditions and economic culture – to call for the privatisation of Rai (a call that has been echoed in liberal circles during these weeks of controversy surrounding ‘Report’) will be disappointed on reading the report. The conditions for privatisation do not exist, firstly because there would be a lack of political consensus, but also because it would be difficult to reconcile with the 12,000 employees on the books. Rai is also one of the bodies that funds local productions and Italian TV series, and the end of the public service would have disastrous consequences for the underlying supply chain. Neither of these factors (the workforce nor downstream funding), however, has so far prevented Viale Mazzini from achieving healthy operating margins. But the fundamental consideration that leads Mediobanca to defend the Italian public service is another: in a market dominated by global, American and digital platforms, do we really want to further squeeze Rai’s space? ‘Is this what Italy wants, and what the EU wants?’ they ask themselves in Piazzetta Cuccia.