Poste-Tim: the game of Risk heading towards closure

Poste has chosen to minimise any risk associated with the TIM deal. The increased offer price is significant, but what matters most is the long-awaited decision to waive the minimum threshold of 66.67 per cent: even with lower levels of acceptance, Poste will purchase the shares tendered and the offer will proceed. This does not mean that the outcome is now a foregone conclusion. It does, however, mean that the bidder has decided to remove one of the conditions that could have complicated the deal. And from this perspective, the news is positive. Major corporate transactions often become precarious when, after months of preparation, the temptation prevails to defend the initial price to the very end or to allow a formal threshold to turn an imperfect result into a failure. Poste has chosen a different path: to spend a little more to seal the deal. The maximum additional outlay is €512 million in the event of full acceptance.

Of course, this does not dispel questions about the operation. If take-up were to be significantly lower than expected, the issue of control and governance would remain. However, the relaunch can be interpreted both as a sign of determination and as an acknowledgement that a course correction was needed. And this is precisely where the encouraging aspect lies. Rather than digging in its heels over the price, Poste, as many analysts note, is trying to make a project it considers commercially promising a reality. The estimated synergies are significant – the document indicates a net present value of 4.4 billion – and the clear objective is to achieve a shareholding structure simple enough to allow at least part of that value to be actually realised. For TIM, which over the years has become accustomed to deals being announced, rethought, blocked or complicated by difficult shareholding structures, the point is simple: to recognise that, this time, those who have initiated the deal seem determined to do whatever is necessary to see it through to completion. And in a corporate history often marked by uncertainty, that in itself is already a significant difference.