Meloni’s ‘stability’ is an achievement that should not be underestimated

Giorgia Meloni is certainly being overly triumphant in her celebrations of her government’s record tenure (1,414 days to date): the celebrations in Bari and the FdI brochure listing all the government’s achievements clash with the polls, which show growing dissatisfaction amongst the electorate (the latest YouTrend poll for Sky indicates 36 per cent positive ratings and 59 per cent negative). Yet the opposition may be mistaken in underestimating the importance of stability, especially in such a critical international context as the current one. It is undoubtedly true that longevity is not a value in itself, but it is equally true that all you need to do is stand still to avoid falling. A look at what is happening in Europe helps to explain this. 

Since Meloni took office at Palazzo Chigi on 22 October 2022, there have been four prime ministers in the United Kingdom and five prime ministers in France (across six governments): two political and institutional systems that epitomised stability. In Spain, Pedro Sánchez’s minority government – which did not even table a single Budget Bill throughout the entire parliamentary term – would have fallen long ago under the Italian institutional system, which allows for motions of no confidence in Parliament.

None of these countries has faced crises that were particularly different from those in Italy. Keir Starmer’s Labour government took office with a huge majority – around 200 seats more than all the opposition parties combined – yet the Prime Minister’s popularity plummeted in the polls and he was forced to resign by his party. France has become bogged down in its inability – due to a lack of political and social consensus – to implement fiscal consolidation: the deficit stood at 4.7 per cent in 2022 and, rather than falling, rose to 5.1 per cent in 2025. In Germany, the government led by the Christian Democrat Friedrich Merz, grappling with an industrial crisis and the management of immigration, is seeing a sharp decline in support and is facing the rise of the far-right AfD. In Spain, despite robust economic growth (the highest in the Eurozone), the socialist government is in enormous difficulty, partly as a result of the migration crisis in Ceuta.

The energy crisis, the industrial crisis, wage stagnation, the consolidation of public finances and the management of immigration are issues which, to varying degrees, affect all European countries. The Meloni government has managed to tackle many of these problems without major setbacks. In 2022, it inherited a fiscal deficit of 8.1 per cent (the highest in the European Union), largely due to the out-of-control Superbonus: within three years, this has been reduced to 3.1 per cent (and Minister Giancarlo Giorgetti hopes that in the coming days the Istat revision will bring the figure for 2025 below 3 per cent). Without this significant adjustment, with public debt now at its highest level in Europe – following the Gulf War and the energy crisis – Italy was the country most likely to go into a tailspin. Instead, the rating agencies have upgraded Italy’s credit rating and the spread has fallen from around 230 basis points to around 80 basis points: the yield on Italian BTPs is now lower than that on French OATs. As the ECB noted in its latest annual report for 2025, the rise in German Bund yields has pushed up all eurozone government bond yields: “The yield on Italian 10-year government bonds was the exception, remaining largely unchanged”. Stable, in fact.

Another factor contributing to stability has come from the labour market. Compared with October 2022, there are almost 1.2 million more people in work and, above all, around 1.4 million more people in permanent employment. These may be jobs in low value-added sectors with relatively low wages, but they are stable contracts: the number of people on fixed-term contracts – that is, in precarious employment – has fallen by half a million. It is true that wages have not kept pace with inflation (gross wages have fallen by 7–8 per cent), but it is equally true that tax reforms have offset much of the loss in gross earnings and that many households now have an additional income earner. The Bank of Italy shows, in its latest annual report, that household disposable income has risen slightly each year over the last three years.

Italians are not particularly happy with the way things are going on energy, taxes, healthcare and security. But it should not be overlooked that the Meloni government’s tenure is underpinned by certain fundamentals that have averted serious social tensions and enabled it to maintain a solid level of public support. These factors will not be insignificant when the time comes to vote. Because stability is not a great absolute value, but it can be so in relative terms: does the ‘broad coalition’ alternative – which, at present, has defined neither its scope nor its programme nor its leader – offer anything more? Or does it risk failing to guarantee even stability?