Universities and employment: the parallel challenges of demographic decline

Francesco Billari, Rector of Bocconi University, highlighted in the Corriere della Sera a fact that is hard to ignore: without immigration, the Italian population would fall by 16 per cent (-10 million people) between now and 2050. Renato Mazzoncini, Chief Executive of A2A, proposed using universities to attract skilled immigrants by increasing the number of courses taught in English. Between 2028 and 2035, the demographic decline could in fact reduce new enrolments by more than 20 per cent. The proposal is reasonable, but it confuses two distinct issues. The first is how to safeguard the financial sustainability of universities during the demographic winter. The second is how to increase the country’s human capital and counteract the decline in population. Attracting foreign students can certainly contribute to the first objective. For the second, however, it is not enough for them simply to arrive; they must also remain in the country after graduating.

Between 2014 and 2023, over a million Italians emigrated, including 367,000 young people and 146,000 graduates. We therefore have not only a problem with education (Italy remains one of the European countries with the fewest graduates) but, above all, a problem with retaining human capital. Universities may attract students, but it is ultimately the economic system that must convince graduates to stay through salaries, career prospects and quality of life. Italy is at a disadvantage because real wages are stagnant, productivity has been static for decades and there are few high-tech companies. Universities in Italy are rightly subsidised; tuition fees are low and do not cover the cost of educating a student. Increasing the number of courses taught in English would boost the international appeal of universities, but without an overarching plan, there is a risk of funding the education of foreign students who will then choose to move to more dynamic economies.

Consider what has happened in the Netherlands, a country far more attractive than Italy given its higher wages, widespread use of English and innovative businesses. Since 2024, successive governments have introduced and subsequently amended the Internationalisation in Balance Bill (Wib), a measure designed to curb the rapid internationalisation of Dutch universities. To manage the influx of international students and safeguard the Dutch language, the bill provided for an increase in three-year degree programmes taught in Dutch, more restrictive criteria for offering courses in English, and the selection of such courses based on the needs of the labour market. The political reasons were debatable, but the underlying economic issue was real: how many students stay on, and what return does public investment in their education yield?

The crackdown has had visible effects: international enrolments have fallen, sparking protests from universities, whose budgets have been affected. They are currently negotiating with the government, which, following the protests, has partially reversed its course and is adopting measures to restore a balance between internationalisation and the use of English. A study commissioned by five universities in the Randstad region has estimated that stricter limits could reduce GDP by 4–5 billion. The lesson from the Netherlands is not that internationalisation is wrong, but that even a country better equipped than Italy to attract talent is questioning the transition from education to long-term residency. We must therefore open up universities more to the world, expand courses taught in English and remove bureaucratic obstacles. But this must be part of a broader strategy: straightforward post-graduate visas, reasonable access to citizenship, links with businesses, more private research and salaries commensurate with skills. And we must measure not only how many students arrive, but how many graduates stay.

There are already useful examples for non-university-level immigration. The ‘job corridors’ established through an agreement between Confindustria Veneto Est and the Community of Sant’Egidio – subsequently formalised in a protocol with the government – identify the roles required by businesses in the candidates’ countries of origin, train them in technical skills and the Italian language, and bring them to Italy with a clear plan for their placement. The project involves lorry drivers, nurses and skilled workers, and also provides for reception and accommodation. It is a model worth extending. Italy does not just need more graduates, but also technical skills that businesses can no longer find. Otherwise, we will indeed have solved, at least temporarily, the problem of empty lecture theatres, but not that of Italy’s decline.