The energy needed to combat the heat. Renewables are not enough; we need nuclear power

Boccaletti’s article in Monday’s edition of "Il Foglio" hits the nail on the head. The spell of high temperatures is set to continue for some time – a very long time indeed. Another point should be added to his arguments: even if we were able to reduce net emissions to zero – not in Italy, not in Europe, but globally – the time it would take for the climate-altering gases already present in the atmosphere to be reabsorbed would exceed a century, according to the IPCC. Adapting to this unprecedented situation is therefore the first thing we must do, and Boccaletti accurately identifies some of the necessary measures.

To bring these to fruition, two things are needed: a great deal of energy and a great deal of money. And perhaps these two elements can be combined by defining an adaptation strategy that represents a completely new cycle of investment – particularly public investment – giving rise to economic sectors that contribute positively to GDP growth and employment. From that perspective, the NRRP has been a missed opportunity, with a few rare exceptions.

It is possible to live in hot climates, as demonstrated by the geography of the world and by countries that are also highly developed economically. Anyone visiting the developed parts of the Middle East, with cities literally built in the desert and where temperatures are extremely high for many months, is amazed by the amount of water available (desalination plants), the perfectly manicured gardens, the countless swimming pools and even an indoor ski resort. Obviously, air conditioning reigns supreme. There are two underlying factors: plenty of money and investment which, contrary to popular belief, are generated only to a small extent – in the case of Dubai, for example – by gas and oil. The lion’s share comes from tourism, services, finance, logistics, transport, trade and property. Nothing that would not also be within our reach if we truly decided to ‘unleash’ our economy, setting aside resistance and clichés.

Our situation is more complicated when it comes to energy. Boccaletti relies heavily on renewables – solar and wind power – and on storage systems that are supposed to mitigate their variability. I must point out in this regard that expecting wind power to deliver large-scale generation at capped prices, particularly for offshore wind, is currently not very credible. There is little usable wind in Italy. But it is gas that sets the price, adds Boccaletti, due to the marginal pricing mechanisms that dictate the rules on the electricity market. This in itself would demonstrate the need for ‘base load’ generation sources as an alternative to the volatility of gas prices; and, having ruled out coal, the only option available is nuclear energy, which should not be considered a last resort, but one of the main areas in which to invest.

In truth, even today, our electricity system is functioning, both in terms of available power and in terms of energy consumed, partly thanks to 15 per cent of nuclear energy imported from France. In 2022, with critical situations such as this and France in difficulty, the electricity system’s reserve fell to zero. Without French nuclear power, in other words, we would have faced a blackout. But even if we had reduced gas usage to more reasonable levels, we would still be in the same position: with gas dictating the price, especially during the hours when renewable energy output drops. In July, wind power accounted for 4.51 per cent of total consumption. As for the claim that gas always sets the price, this is only partly true. Here’s a fact: during these hot months, when energy demand has been very high, gas has set the price in less than 50 per cent of cases. In July, it was less than 30 per cent. Gas is the price driver, but on top of its already high prices come even higher bids from those who can decide how and when to release the precious energy at their disposal. One of these sources is an old acquaintance: reservoir hydroelectric power, which can be perfectly scheduled for the hours when prices are highest, to which we can add another factor. The other is a newcomer: batteries, which have the same ability to determine how much and when. All that glitters is not gold, therefore, and only by radically reducing the share of ‘contestable’ energy – which drives up prices – and introducing a source such as nuclear power into the system, which is constant and at a fixed price, can the situation be rectified. Electricity, far more so than in the past, will be the energy of the future: data centres, air conditioning, electric transport. This is the source of the renewed interest in nuclear energy that is sweeping the globe: from China to the United States, from Europe to the Middle East.