Salvini wants 5 per cent from the ten largest banks. Like Sánchez

As punctual as a Swiss watch, even during this sweltering summer Matteo Salvini has announced a levy on banks’ profits. One might expect the Minister for Infrastructure to be busy at the moment mitigating the damage caused by the drought and preventing that caused by the likely floods. Instead, as he himself admitted, he has been poring over the half-yearly results of Italy’s two leading banks (namely, Intesa Sanpaolo and Unicredit), noting that they have recorded profits of 12 billion. Mind you, Salvini avoided talking about ‘extra profits’ because he must have convinced himself that the term is meaningless. Yet he was even more direct and specific than on other occasions: “We will demand,” he said, “a contribution equal to 5 per cent of profits for three years, and we will demand this not from all banks but from the top ten.”

Whether it is propaganda or the introduction of a new measure to balance the books in the economic budget, it is fair to say that it is becoming common practice for the national banking system to finance the Meloni government’s fiscal policy. And the announcement in the middle of summer is too tempting an opportunity to pass up for political gain. The first time, in 2023, it was a disaster because the so-called ‘windfall profits’ tax turned into a gift to the banks. Then, over the following two years, the government took a hard line, only to reach agreements with the banks providing for the advance payment of deferred taxes (which will subsequently be recouped) and an extra half a percentage point of IRAP to be paid into the state coffers. And now we are in the fourth year. The funds – as the Minister for Infrastructure explained – could be used for security: “We would like to double the number of officers in the ‘Safe Roads’ programme.” So Italian banks, with their profits, are expected to support this government’s vision of security for Italy rather than, for example, something more neutral, politically speaking, such as economic growth. It must be said that Salvini spoke on behalf of the Lega and not of the government, so for now this is a proposal from a majority party and not a government measure, but it was enough to send the banking world into a frenzy – a reaction that was somewhat expected, though perhaps not so soon, not in this heat, which is forcing the ABI leadership to keep a close ear on the mood at Palazzo Chigi to understand what concrete measures they should expect when they return from their holidays. If a compulsory levy of 5 per cent on the profits of Italian credit institutions were actually possible on the basis of an executive decree, there would have been a collapse in share prices on the stock exchange yesterday, just as happened three summers ago at the mere announcement of such a measure. Instead, shares in the sector have remained virtually unchanged – a sign either that the market has not attached too much importance to Salvini’s words, or that it is awaiting a detailed regulation before assessing the potential impact on balance sheets.

As for the banking association, led by Antonio Patuelli, the mood is one of waiting and, for the time being, no official position has been taken, apart from reiterating that the agreement signed last year with the government is considered valid – namely, a commitment to provide multi-year contributions, without any new one-off taxes, to contribute to financial stability and economic solidarity. This commitment is perhaps considered too vague, given that a budget bill is due to be drafted in accordance with the European rules of the new Stability and Growth Pact. The League intends to request – and Salvini says he is convinced that the entire majority “will back us” – a three-year subsidy for the top 10 Italian banks, excluding smaller ones, which amounts to creating discrimination within the sector, the legal sustainability of which remains to be seen. But that is the situation, and whilst Spain is not a country to be emulated on the issue of migrants, on the issue of banks it is a model to be followed. “As for the Sánchez government,” observed the League leader, “I agree with nothing except the economic measures they have taken regarding the banks. If we were to take our cue from what Spain is doing (where the rate has been raised to 7 per cent for the largest banks, ed.) and were content with 5 per cent a year…”. Salvini emphasised that part of these profits “stems from state guarantees – and therefore from the taxpayers” – and from the “difference between interest income and interest expense”. The ball is now in the court of the government and the Minister for the Economy, Giancarlo Giorgetti, who last year described the banks’ contribution to the budget as “a duty”.