The countdown to Orcel’s move on BPM points to ‘August’

If not now, then when? If not during this sweltering month of August, when will Andrea Orcel, CEO of Unicredit, be able to realise his (hitherto) forbidden dream of acquiring Banco Bpm? The moment Intesa Sanpaolo launched its takeover bid for Montepaschi, the countdown began for what will be the final showdown in Italy’s great banking game of Risk. Tick-tock, the clock is ticking, but perhaps this will not be the decisive weekend, as speculated, for the alternative proposal to Intesa to be revealed – namely, the merger between Montepaschi and BPM. Things have become more complicated in recent days, with figures that do not add up and internal struggles within Montepaschi’s board of directors. And yesterday, CEO Carlo Messina even declared “whatever it takes” to signal that he will do everything possible to carry out his plan in tandem with Unipol, whose shareholders have given the green light to a 2.5 billion capital increase to raise the necessary funds. 

Will MPS and Banco BPM find the strength to stand in the way of such a behemoth? What is known is that the advisers have been working day and night to find a solution. However, no developments are expected in the immediate future, and the only board meeting scheduled is on 6 August to approve the accounts. On the other hand, August is the window of opportunity within which MPS would need to act if it intends to put forward an alternative proposal to Intesa that the market has time to assess. It is hard to believe that Orcel is viewing all this activity merely as a spectator, rather than through the eyes of a dynamic banker ready to seize opportunities on the chessboard. The latest development is that Orcel received an explicit offer from Messina yesterday regarding “future collaborations”. According to observers very close to the situation, this means that Intesa’s CEO is open to considering the sharing of MPS assets which, for competition law reasons, might prove to be surplus to requirements; it is also a reassuring signal for future cooperation within Generali.

Will all this be enough for Orcel to declare himself satisfied with his position in Italy? He certainly has no shortage of agility, and the recent reconciliation with the Ministry of Economy and Finance (MEF), led by Giancarlo Giorgetti – sealed by a number of informal talks, as revealed by Il Foglio and never denied by the parties involved – suggests that the path for Banco BPM is no longer strewn with obstacles, as it was last year with the ‘golden power’, but is wide open should Unicredit decide to expand in Italy by closing the gap with Intesa Sanpaolo. Indeed. A move by Unicredit to acquire Banco BPM would carry positive political significance for the Ministry of Economy and Finance (MEF), which, on the one hand, has always looked favourably upon the creation of a third banking hub involving MPS, whilst, on the other, is aware that Intesa’s bid for Siena is currently the one with the greatest chance of success. If it were to go ahead, the Milan-based bank led by Giuseppe Castagna would remain, as they say, ‘stand-alone’ and under the control of Crédit Agricole, which already owns 30 per cent of it, with all that this entails in terms of acceptability for a significant part of the governing majority. In other words, if the French advance in Italy were to be countered by an Italian bank with an international focus such as Unicredit, the Ministry of Economy and Finance would have no objections.

Things change, and Palazzo Chigi’s stance on banking consolidation manoeuvres is not the same as it was in 2025. This year, the game of Risk is being played in reverse: politics has adapted to a scenario in which market forces are prevailing, particularly with a view to stabilising control of the Generali Group, of which two major banks – Intesa Sanpaolo and Unicredit – could soon become the first and second largest shareholders. A peaceful (?) coexistence between Messina and Orcel in Trieste – that is currently the most likely scenario. A test of Unicredit’s new direction in Italy is the divestment of Banca del Mezzogiorno, which is controlled by the state through Mediocredito Centrale. Financial sources confirm that the bank led by Orcel submitted a non-binding bid in July and will also have to compete there with Crédit Agricole, which is keen to expand its distribution capacity in southern Italy. Binding bids are expected in early September, and there could be a head-to-head contest with the French if the other two contenders (BCC-Iccrea in a consortium with POP Puglia and Basilicata, and Credem) lack the financial clout to compete with these giants. It all fits into the world of banking ‘Risiko’, which sometimes resembles a game of mirrors: you look from one side and realise you are seeing only the image reflected from the opposite side. Orcel has a major deal in the pipeline in Germany, which has been finalised financially but remains entirely open in terms of Commerzbank’s industrial strategy and governance. Despite this, the bank he leads has the capital capacity to carry out other transactions, and a BPM left on its own in the middle of August is a temptation that is hard to resist. Just like when your wife goes on holiday.