GDP is growing faster than expected and in line with the Eurozone. The energy crisis has not been catastrophic

This time, the American banks Goldman Sachs and Citi got it right: GDP rose by 0.2 per cent quarter-on-quarter and 1 per cent year-on-year. The forecasts from their Italian counterparts, on the other hand, had been more cautious. So, hurrah for the Yanks. But the truth is that we Italians, when we have to talk about our gross domestic product, no longer think in terms of percentage points of growth, but only in decimals. We are fully under the tyranny of the zero-point-something and won’t be escaping it for a while. This minor Italian surprise is in line with the Eurozone figures, which were also better than expected, so we can say that the European economy is proving more resilient than anticipated to the geopolitical and energy shock. At least until the second quarter of ’26; further ahead, things might not go so well due to the war in the Middle East. In the meantime, however, there’s a celebration at Palazzo Chigi.

“Once again, Italy has outperformed the forecasts,” wrote Giorgia Meloni on social media. “And whilst there were those on the left who were rooting for Italy to slow down, the facts tell a different story. Go on, keep underestimating us, and Italy will continue to surprise you.” Carlo Calenda’s cold shower was immediate: “Extraordinary, Giorgia. All credit to the government. Let’s keep this up – perpetually in election campaign mode. For twenty years.” Political skirmishes aside, based on the data provided by Istat, we know that the credit for this modest performance lies with the domestic component, rather than a negative contribution from foreign trade, whilst from the perspective of value-added production, the growth comes from services, which offset a negative contribution from industry.

According to Paolo Mameli, an economist at Intesa Sanpaolo, the latest figures suggest that the rise in GDP at the start of the year was not significantly inflated by the impact of the Winter Olympics, whilst the hypothesis that growth was partly driven by companies’ generous stock-building policies remains plausible. The effects of these developments result in a 0.8 per cent change in 2026 GDP that has already been factored in, prompting Intesa to revise its forecast for annual GDP growth upwards from 0.5 per cent to a range of 0.7–0.9 per cent.

In the eurozone, GDP rose by 0.4 per cent quarter-on-quarter and by 1 per cent year-on-year. In Germany, the slowdown was less severe than expected; in France, there was a rebound in line with expectations; whilst Spain recorded another surprise acceleration.

According to Fedele De Novellis, a partner at Ref Ricerche, Italian and European data show that “the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has not triggered a catastrophic crisis; we have already seen oil at $90 in the past, so this is not a repeat of the 2022 crisis”. Furthermore, there are at least two pieces of good news that are influencing the markets. “The tariff shock is subsiding; it is not the watershed moment we feared. Companies have learnt to live with it. The second piece of good news concerns investment in artificial intelligence: everyone is investing except us, but some of the global demand is still trickling down to Italy.” A similar argument applies to the automotive sector, whose crisis is “somewhat less severe; production is growing and Stellantis has said it will remain here”. The Achilles’ heel, however, remains the cost of energy, which hinders Italian companies in global competition. But, all things considered, what will our GDP be by 2026? “I’d say +0.8,” replies De Novellis. Yesterday, labour market figures for June were also released. The rise in the number of people in employment is minimal (+1,000), but this time it is due to an increase in temporary contracts, which had not been growing at such a rate (+91,000) since autumn 2021. By contrast, the number of permanent employees and the self-employed is falling. The number of unemployed is rising, but the number of economically inactive people is falling: the pool of jobseekers is expanding, whilst that of NEETs is shrinking. If we look at employment on a year-on-year basis, the increase was nevertheless 131,000 jobs, a result which indicates that the decline in the labour market, predicted on several occasions, has not yet materialised. It is true that lower-skilled jobs are on the rise, as are fixed-term contracts in June, but this trend is nevertheless helping to support household incomes, which are thus increasing. But will they start spending again? For now, the tourist season is going well and the signs coming from holiday destinations are encouraging; however, there is no indication that, come September, these same households will resume buying clothes, sofas, computers, cars and so on.

Rather than relying on consumption, it is wiser to count on a healthy pace of private investment. Whilst spending under the National Recovery and Resilience Plan (PNRR) has so far been accompanied by stronger growth in the South than in the North, if we are to hope for even a few decimal points’ increase in GDP, we will once again have to rely on businesses in the northern regions and on foreign investment. One key factor is undoubtedly the industries upgrading their machinery thanks to ‘Transizione 5.0’ and the hyper-depreciation scheme. A second factor lies in logistics: a decision such as Amazon’s to move its hub from Malpensa to Montichiari (Brescia) is reshaping employment opportunities across the region. And, finally, there are the massive investments by Big Tech firms to set up their data centres. This is the AI ‘trickle-down’ effect we were discussing, and it is concentrated primarily in Lombardy, reaffirming the region’s central role.