The trade war between the US and China is playing out on Cxmt

On Monday, Cxmt – one of the world’s largest manufacturers of DRAM memory chips, which are essential for data centres and next-generation AI systems – will be listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange, having been blacklisted by the Pentagon due to alleged links with the Chinese military. The company was subsequently removed from the list – although it remains subject to trade restrictions – following pressure from major US firms such as Apple, which source components from CXMT. In short, Cupertino (and others) had faced a memory crisis due to the breakdown in relations with this company. According to Antonio Cesarano, chief investment advisor at Sella Sgr, the move also “represents part of the show of strength that Xi Jinping wishes to demonstrate to the world in the technological sphere and in the challenge to the United States”. The Chinese president’s statements at the recent AI conference in Shanghai leave no doubt that Beijing aims to lead a new technological order based primarily on open AI – albeit with limits – as an alternative to and in competition with the American model. The CXMT deal forms part of this objective.”

In itself, Cxmt’s IPO is not particularly large, at least compared to those recently seen on Wall Street (OpenAI and Anthropic), but it is taking on geopolitical significance due to the fact that it is regarded in China as a cornerstone of the AI and chip ecosystem and an international supply hub. Furthermore, it is shaping up to be the largest Asian IPO of 2026, having recorded strong demand from institutional investors during the pre-market phase, which concluded on 21 July with $8.5 billion raised. However, there are a few clouds on the horizon. “Investor interest,” notes Cesarano, “was very strong in the early days of the share placement but then slowed due to recent falls in semiconductor shares and the growing fear in the markets of a financial bubble in the AI sector.” Whilst China’s lead over the United States in the technology sector remains to be seen, it has already been achieved in terms of stock market valuations. Indeed, the latest Consob report shows that over the last 10 years (from 2015 to 2025), China ranks first in terms of funds raised through initial public offerings (IPOs) at $647 billion – one and a half times that of the United States ($425 billion) and almost three times that of the European Union. This is a surprising result when one considers that China’s financial market is, on the whole, less developed than that of the US and also less sophisticated than that of Europe. “

“It’s a question of the scale of the transactions, but there is a very strong focus on AI IPOs in both the United States and China,” explains Cesarano. “Since Xi Jinping came to power, there has been a strong push in China to shift the engine of growth from investment in infrastructure and property to investment in technology, as this is a sector with high added value – not only economically but also geopolitically. This explains the sharp rise in IPOs in the tech sector, particularly in sectors related to AI.” However, never before had a single transaction raised $85 billion in an IPO, and this happened in the United States in recent weeks with SpaceX, Elon Musk’s company. Anthropic, founded by the Amodei brothers, also raised $65 billion. These last two listings alone would be enough to signal a turnaround in favour of US IPOs. “Watch out for DeepSeek, though,” warns the expert. “It is one of China’s leading artificial intelligence developers, which has formally thrown down the gauntlet in the AI sector and could apply for a listing as early as the end of 2026, before going public in early 2027.” According to the latest reports from Bloomberg, the company could be valued at around $70 billion, well above June’s estimates of $50 billion. “Moreover, this company is key to bolstering the Chinese government’s narrative on national technological self-sufficiency vis-à-vis the United States,” concludes Cesarano. Indeed, Deep Seek wants to compete with the tech giants of Silicon Valley, but it needs capital and is therefore looking to the stock market and private equity funds. In addition to the technology war, a stock market war has broken out between the United States and China.