Young and fickle. In the mid-term elections, seven out of ten under-30s vote Democrat

In the presidential election two years ago, 56 per cent of young American men voted for Donald Trump. On Tuesday, nearly two in three voted for a Democratic candidate for the House of Representatives. Among all under-30s, the Democrats secured 72 per cent of the vote, whilst the Republicans received 25 per cent: these figures come from Voter Poll, the SSRS survey conducted for a media consortium, involving nearly 80,000 respondents. According to Circle, Tufts University’s youth voting research centre, a 47-point margin had never before been seen in a national election. The previous record was 35 points, set in 2018. In 2024, the Democratic lead in the House of Representatives stood at 14 points. 

This shift is also coming from those who supported Trump two years ago. Young white voters, who backed the GOP 54 per cent to 44 per cent in 2024, are now voting Democrat at a rate of over 60 per cent. In rural areas, where Trump had won 60 per cent of the under-30s, the Democrats are leading by 20 points. The gap based on educational attainment has almost disappeared: 73 per cent among university graduates, 69 per cent among those with only a school-leaving certificate. 

Support declines with age: 76 per cent amongst 18–24-year-olds, 68 per cent amongst 25–29-year-olds, 60 per cent amongst 30–44-year-olds, and 51 per cent amongst 45–64-year-olds. Only the over-65s favour the Republicans, by 51 per cent to 48 per cent.

In any case, the proportion of under-30s remains low: only around one in ten voters belongs to this age group, compared with 12 per cent in 2022. Circle warns that the decline may be due to a very high turnout across the entire electorate.

It remains to be seen to what extent this vote reflects genuine support. Before the election, 43 per cent of young people identified with neither the Democrats nor the Republicans, and according to a Harvard poll, only 9 per cent believed the country was on the right track. Over eight years, the margin has shifted from 35 to 14 to 47 points. An electorate capable of shifting by 33 points in two years presents a challenge because, having shifted as it has now, it could do so again in 2028.