Russia is increasingly dependent on North Korea and Iran for personnel, weapons and propaganda

Russia is in urgent need of soldiers for its war against Ukraine, as the offensive is slowing to its lowest pace in recent years and the Kremlin needs fresh cannon fodder. This is why yet another batch of aid from North Korea is reportedly on its way. On Saturday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy revealed that the Kremlin had requested a further 30,000 North Korean soldiers and the delivery of additional ballistic missile launchers to Moscow. According to information gathered by Ukrainian intelligence, the new recruits are reportedly destined for the Voronezh region in south-western Russia, a logistical hub linked to Kursk and the Donbas. The news comes a week after North Korean Foreign Minister Choe Son Hui’s visit to Moscow, and as preparations are underway for a potential visit by dictator Kim to Vladimir Putin. (Pompili continues in insert III)

According to various sources, Pyongyang is said to have sent over twenty thousand soldiers to Russia to date. Of these, around seven thousand are reported to have been casualties, including both dead and wounded. In recent days, South Korean intelligence has leaked some rumours to the media: according to Seoul, by approving the Kremlin’s list of demands, leader Kim Jong Un expected to receive, in return, essential military technology, food aid and oil immediately. However, the North Korean leadership – despite having had to concoct a credible justification for its domestic propaganda to send its men to fight a war never mentioned before – is said to have been disappointed ‘at not having received sufficient benefits’. At this stage, South Korean analysts say, if Putin’s need were to be so urgent, the Kremlin might be willing to accept any request from Pyongyang, even the most sensitive ones (even for Moscow) concerning military technologies such as reconnaissance satellites, intercontinental ballistic missiles and nuclear submarines. The government in Seoul has stated that it is “closely monitoring developments in this regard”, but yesterday many South Korean commentators highlighted an easily discernible problem: just over two months ago, the United States decided to restrict the sharing of intelligence with Seoul – ostensibly due to a leak regarding a new North Korean nuclear site, but in reality for reasons that have never been clarified – and if North Korea obtains from Russia the technology it has not yet managed to develop independently, the risks for South Korea, and for East Asia in general, could multiply.

Putin’s latest appeal to Pyongyang reflects Russia’s difficulties in recruiting new soldiers. To avoid an increasingly unpopular compulsory mobilisation, Moscow has so far relied on voluntary military contracts incentivised by high bonuses, amounting to as much as 5.5 million roubles (around 70,000 dollars) for a year’s service. These have been circulating on Telegram channels for weeks, offering great prospects, but the clause preventing soldiers from terminating their contract and returning home before the promised expiry date is a cause for concern. Although the government claims to have enlisted over 80,000 contract soldiers in the first few months of 2026, experts and independent media report a dramatic drop in sign-ups. To compensate for this, the authorities are said to have increased pressure on vulnerable groups, including students, migrants and those in financial difficulty. As early as the beginning of the month, there was talk of a new recruitment drive from North Korea. Jenny Town, director of the Stimson Centre’s 38 North programme, told CNN that a new conscription of 30,000 men may “seem like a large number”, but North Korea could be prepared to send even unskilled soldiers – all North Koreans undergo lengthy military service and almost all can be called up: “There are rumours that some Russian generals are already in North Korea to train the troops.”

After all, whilst Kim Jong Un is supplying Putin with the troops he lacks, Iran has for years been supplying Russia with the weapons to strike Ukraine. And it was on this broader front that a revealing incident took place last weekend. Last Saturday, Kyiv claimed responsibility for a drone attack in the Caspian Sea on a vessel from Iran carrying military equipment destined for Moscow. Tehran stated that it was in fact a commercial vessel, that the Ukrainian attack was a ‘provocation’ which resulted in one death and one injury, and summoned the Ukrainian chargé d’affaires. Since then, however, Iranian rhetoric against Ukraine has escalated dramatically, amplified by all Russian propaganda channels. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said that the attack “cannot go unanswered” as it was carried out “in violation of the United Nations Charter”. Zelenskyy responded yesterday in an interview on Sky: “Ever since the first year of the war, Iran has supplied Russia with Shahed drone technology. It has delivered thousands of drones and then transferred the licence to manufacture them. Haven’t they attacked us? In my view, yes, they already have.” Just as North Korea has also done.