Opinion polls and electoral laws. How much influence does Vannacci have on the centre-right?

Vannacci continues to rise in the polls. According to the latest SWG survey for TGLa7, the former general’s party has gained 0.2 per cent compared with last week, reaching 7.9 per cent, and is increasingly consolidating its lead over the Lega, which has fallen to 5.5 per cent (-0.2), and Forza Italia, which remains at 6.9 per cent. Meanwhile, Fratelli d’Italia has risen to 27 per cent, remaining the country’s leading party (+0.2), whilst Noi Moderati remains stable at 1 per cent.

On the other hand, the Democratic Party remains the leading opposition party with 20.9 per cent (+0.3 per cent), whilst the Five Star Movement rises to 12.6 per cent (+0.3). The Greens–Left Alliance, on the other hand, falls to 6.9 per cent (-0.1 per cent), Italia Viva remains stable at 2.5 per cent and PiùEuropa drops to 1.3 per cent (-0.1 per cent). In the centre, Carlo Calenda’s Azione loses 0.1 per cent and falls to 3.1 per cent, whilst Cateno De Luca’s Sud Chiama Nord is expected to remain at 1 per cent.

Ultimately, the centre-right will have to reckon with Vannacci anyway. This is demonstrated by the latest simulation carried out by YouTrend for Sky Tg24 based on last Friday’s super-average: whatever electoral law is in place for the 2027 general election – the exact date of which is not yet known – the former general will prove decisive for the current governing coalition. As things stand, therefore, if the Rosatellum were to remain in place, the election result would not allow for the formation of a clear majority in Parliament, unless the centre-right were to bring Futuro Nazionale into the coalition – although such a broad coalition would stand a better chance in the Senate than in the Chamber of Deputies. If, on the other hand, the ‘Stabilicum’ were to be passed and the centre-right did not form an alliance with Vannacci, the centre-left would win by a clear margin in both Houses.

If Parliament were to pass the new electoral law, the centre-right’s strategy would centre on whether or not to extend the alliance to include Fn. If Fratelli d’Italia, Forza Italia, the League and Noi Moderati were to accept this arrangement, the coalition would win in both houses of Parliament. In the Chamber of Deputies, it would in fact secure 226 seats (with 48.7 per cent of the vote) against the 157 seats of a centre-left bloc comprising the Democratic Party, the Five Star Movement, the Greens-Left Alliance, Italia Viva and PiùEuropa (remaining at 43.2 per cent). Azione would remain outside both coalitions with 14 seats and 3.7 per cent, whilst the remaining parties would have to share the three remaining seats (equivalent to 4.4 per cent). However, if the centre-right were to decide to stand alone, it would secure only 139 seats with 41.1 per cent – thus falling below the majority bonus threshold set at 42 per cent – and the broad coalition would emerge victorious, reaching 43.2 per cent (and securing 221 seats). Meanwhile, Futuro Nazionale would sit in opposition with 25 MPs and 7.6 per cent of the vote, whilst Calenda’s party would have twelve seats (3.7 per cent). In this scenario too, the other parties would account for 4.4 per cent.

A similar scenario would play out in the Senate. With the former general in the coalition, the centre-right would secure a majority with 48.7 per cent of the vote (117 seats), whilst the broad coalition of senators would hold 74 (43.2 per cent). Azione would maintain the same percentages as in the Chamber of Deputies, but would win 6 seats. If, on the other hand, FdI, FI, Lega and Nm decided not to stand in the election alongside Vannacci, the centre-left would win the majority of the votes. In this scenario, the broad coalition would have 43.2 per cent, with 110 seats, whilst the centre-right would fall to 41.1 per cent (69 seats). Futuro Nazionale, with its 7.6 per cent, would thus have 12 elected senators.

If the electoral reform were to fall through, the election would be held under the old law, the Rosatellum. Even in this scenario, according to the polls, the centre-right would secure a clear victory with Vannacci: in the Chamber of Deputies, it would elect 219 MPs (48.7 per cent of the vote), while the centre-left would secure just 167 (43.2 per cent) and Azione 11. If Vannacci were ultimately to stand alone, neither coalition would reach the 201 seats required for a majority: the centre-right would stop at 169, whilst the broad coalition would reach 198. This would open up further scenarios, as the twenty Fn deputies, the ten from Azione and three from other parties would remain in Parliament.

In the Senate, the centre-right, with Vannacci, could count on a majority of 106 senators, whilst the centre-left would have only 88. However, the outcome would be reversed if Futuro Nazionale were outside the coalition. In this case, the broad coalition would have 107 senators, whilst the centre-right would have 77, with Futuro Nazionale remaining in opposition with ten elected members.