Sostiene Paul De Grauwe
Cosa succederebbe se l'Italia chiedesse l'attivazione del meccanismo anti spread, come ipotizzato ieri da Mario Monti? Sostiene l'economista Paul De Grauwe sul Wall Street Journal di oggi:
(...) Mr. De Grauwe argues that if Italy does ask for help in its bond markets now, the request will backfire. Because the bailout funds' resources are relatively small, investors will expect them to run out of cash quickly, he says. That would mean rational bondholders would dump bonds immediately, rather than waiting for the funds to run out of money.
Keeping Italian bond yields down to affordable levels would cost 26 billion a week, estimates Patrick Artus, an economist at asset-management group Natixis. That would use up the eurozone's remaining bailout resources in three months.
Bondholders are thus not convinced that the bailout funds can prevent restructurings for Spain and Italy, and that means they demand hugh yields to compensate for risks.
The only institution that can convince investors thay won't suffer losses, says Mr. De Grauwe, is the European Central Bank, which has an unlimited capacity to buy bonds. (...)